Tip: Decide which is the cart and which is the horse. "Somepeople go right to the money source -- the exhibitors -- and, based on theirresponses, will do a show," says Harar. "I say: Start at the endand work your way back -- put the emphasis on the attendee side. If youhave attendees, the exhibitors will come."

• In person, one-on-one
• In focus groups
• With a telephone survey conducted by your company or an outside company
• With a mailed survey conducted by your company or an outside company

Tip: Balance your research so it's both comprehensive and objective.Each of the research approaches listed above has its own pros and cons."There's no substitute for the ongoing research you do yourself,"says Julson. "But when you do your own research, you sometimes findthe answers you want. So it's important to have it validated independently."

Hilgenberg maintains that as much as 95 percent of the needed informationcan be obtained through internal research, which is both relatively quickand cost-effective. Nevertheless, "For a purely objective point ofview, outside research is the way to go," she says. A further benefit:"A research firm can often do a cross-analysis and spot a trend thatyou can't see."

Julson cautions that although "focus groups are great for fleshingout ideas, they produce a generalized response. To get specific responses,take that information to the public for a consumer show or to the industryfor a trade show, using a survey." She also observes that a mailedsurvey will in some ways be less representative of the total market thana phone survey. The reason: direct mail respondents are self-selected; theyrespond because they are already interested enough to complete the survey.On the telephone, however, people will indicate that they are ambivalent-- either by their words or by their tone of voice.

Phone research also doesn't have the constraints of a printed survey,with its check-boxes and multiple-choice questions. People talking on thephone are likely to digress and introduce new ideas. "You uncover nuggetsof information in a phone call that you'll never get in a survey,"says Hilgenberg.

ANALYZING THE MARKET POTENTIAL

What you need to know

• How big is the market now? How many suppliers and potential buyers?
• Who are the market leaders, the bellwether companies?
• Is the market growing or stagnant?
• Is it big enough to warrant a show?
• Is there a niche that warrants a show?
• Where should the show be?
• Would it be better to start with a conference program and eventually add a show?

How to find out

Review annual reports of the industry's major players: Is their business growing?

• Query the industry association: Is its membership growing?
• Look at the numbers of exhibitors and attendees at related shows, to estimate the potential participation at your event.
• Contact relevant government organizations.
  Check the Internet, especially for statistical information.
  Review Publications' audit statements for reader demographics.
  

Tip: Narrow your Net. There's an enormous amount of informationon the Internet; the trick is finding what you want. Julson's solution:She looked up government listings in the phone book, then phoned agenciesthat looked promising and asked if they had a Web site. "After halfa dozen phone calls, I could go directly to the sites I wanted, insteadof just searching," she says.

To evaluate specific cities for a show, PEMCO's promotion manager checkedthe Census Bureau's Web site and found a manufacturing data pool that presentedthe number of manufacturing sites and number of employees by state and byZIP code. "If you know the SIC [Standard Industrial Classification]codes and can identify the geographic pockets, that is powerful information,"says Hilgenberg.

Tip: Coordinate your findings. For a consumer show, Julson pointsout that if you know what percent of the total population is involved ina particular hobby, how many people live in the region you're targeting,and what percent of the public usually attends shows, you can make an intelligentestimate of the potential attendance at your new event.

POSITIONING THE NEW IDEA

What you need to know

• What is your purpose/objective/mission?
• How is your idea different from those of existing shows?
• What changes or improvements can you offer?

How to find out

• Review all the information you've compiled.
• Refine and redefine the original positioning of your brand-new idea, based on what you have learned so far.
• Focus on your pluses, not the competition's minuses.

Tip: Don't start your research with a blank slate. "Whenwe talk to exhibitors and attendees, we have some basic positioning already,although the idea is pretty broad-brush," says Hilgenberg. "Wego to them on a need-fulfilment basis. Through the process, we might adda good deal of market information. As you come to the end of the process,the objectives and positioning will be much better defined."

Tip: Don't inadvertently boost the competition. "If you baseyour positioning just on the points of difference, you're wasting your moneyand helping the other guy," Julson warns. "Look at what your customerbenefits are and position yourself as a unique opportunity, but don't compareyourself to other shows."

CREATING A BUDGET

What you need to know

• What should you charge for booth space? Sponsorship opportunities?
• What should you charge for admission to the exhibit hall? The conference program?
• How much revenue will directory/program advertising generate?
• How much should you spend on marketing and promotions?
• What will it cost to produce the event?
• Who will provide financial support?

How to find out

• Check out the market. What are comparable shows charging for booth space, admission to the exhibits and the conference program? What's acceptable in the industry?
• Offer sponsorships and advertising to everyone who could benefit from the exposure -- key exhibitors, industry associations, publications, broadcast media -- and find out how much they typically spend.
• Use the budget from a comparable event that you have produced as a baseline, adjust for inflation, add startup costs and plan to spend more on promotions -- maybe.
• Look among industry associations and publications, as well as organizations with expertise complementary to your own, for prospective partners to share in the startup costs (and the eventual profits).

Tip: Decide if you want to conform to the norm or set yourselfapart. "There are two ways of thinking about pricing," Harar observes."Some people say that if there's competition, you should price a newshow lower. I believe in the Mercedes principle: If you're coming out witha quality product, charge what the top guns are charging. Attendees andexhibitors are used to these prices."

Tip: For sponsorships, especially, start the bidding high. Forone event, NTP initially considered charging $20,000 for sponsorships, butthen determined that $100,000 would be a perfectly fair price -- and soldfive. "You can always lower the price, if necessary, by offering dealsor specials such as Charter Exhibitor designation," says Harar.

Tip: There are several schools of thought when it comes to new-showpromotions. Some show managers say you must spend more in a show's firstyear or two because you are creating an identity; others say it's foolhardyto reduce spending after the first or second year because that change willtarnish the image.

Some suggest allotting 30 percent of projected revenues for first-yearpromotion; others say it should be 45 percent of the total budget. The formulacan also vary from one industry to another. Hilgenberg notes: "Oneindustry might demand glossier mailing pieces, or it might have a largerpress list." You'll need to strike the right balance between experience,conventional wisdom -- and gut feel.

PROJECTING ROI

What you need to know

• When will the event show a profit?
• Will the results be worth the effort?
• Is it a "Go"?

How to find out

• Project revenues from all sources -- exhibit sales, attendance, sponsorships, directory ads, etc. -- for at least three years.
• Project expenses for the same time period.
• Estimate when you can expect to exceed break-even and make a profit.
• Determine whether or not the results are acceptable to your company and make the "Go/No go" decision.

Tip: Every company's goals and requirements are different. Muchdepends on how large your company is and how long you can afford to waitbefore making money. "We set a goal we really believe we can reach,but we set our break-even about 20 percent below that," says Harar."We'd like to break even in the first year, and if we do -- great!But we expect to be showing a certain percentage of profit after three years."

Most show managers agree that it's unrealistic to expect to make a profitthe first year. "If it's truly a new concept, it takes time to buildawareness and an affinity for the event," says Hilgenberg. "Ifa show will lose $100,000 the first year, but in three years will make three-quartersof a million, it could be worth it. It's all in the projection -- and noneof us has a very good crystal ball."

Julson points out that smaller producers might be able to accept a smallerprofit margin because their overhead is lower. Nevertheless, she offersthis rough formula: "You should be able to pay the cost of the showthrough three to five years of profits."

How long will all this take?

You're exploring a long list of questions, considerations and concerns,but it shouldn't be a life's work. Julson suggests allowing three to sixmonths to research a totally new idea, but less for a clone of a show you'realready doing or in an industry that you already know well.

Harar finds that he and his staff can uncover the answers to 80 percentof their key questions in two to three months. "You could spend a yeartrying to come up with the other 20 percent of the answers, and meanwhileyou'll come up with new questions. So you'll never get 100 percent,"he says. And while you're doing all this research, of course, you couldbe attracting the attention of other show managers who might also thinkyour idea is a good one. Consequently, it's important to get your answers,and act on them, as quickly as possible.

Once you've decided to go with your idea, it will take another chunkof time to develop and implement a launch plan. Figure on 12 to 18 monthsfrom launch decision to show date; anything less than 12 months is pushingyour luck. That means that the "Go" decision must be made between12 and 18 months in advance of the optimum show date.

What if your "research" consists of sending out a prospectusto see who responds? "I've been there, too," says Julson. "Peopledo it all the time. But all the research stages are still necessary, evenif you do them in your head." Without basic research, it wouldn't bepossible to create a credible prospectus. But if you do take the quick-and-dirtyapproach, Julson adds, "Be prepared to make alterations along the way-- sometimes very close to the show."

But launching a show without doing adequate research goes against thegrain for Hilgenberg. "That's fine if you have bottomless pockets,or if you're looking for a hobby so you decide to produce trade shows. Butit's just not good business," she emphasizes. "We have a sayingat our company -- 'Never leap off the pier till you know what's in the water.'"