November/December 2003
Where do we go from here?

It seems the worst is over. The latest economic indicators point to a recovery that’s gaining momentum. In late October, the government reported a 7.2 percent annualized rise in gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2003 — the strongest pace of growth since the first quarter of 1984. And even better news for trade shows: Business investment grew at an 11 percent pace, the fastest rate since early 2000.

Despite the good news, most show organizers remain cautiously optimistic. At the IAEM Senior Executive Roundtable in mid-October, the industry’s top decision makers discussed and responded to questions about what would not change about the industry and what would, what worries and concerns will continue and what the potential bright spots for the industry would be. Overall, the tone was upbeat, but there were a number of lingering concerns.

What keeps these show executives up at night? The increasing cost of acquiring exhibitors and attendees. The continued emphasis on cutting costs. The necessary evil of travel. Exhibitors who don’t maximize their opportunities at shows. Negative consumer, exhibitor and attendee perceptions that affect business. Doing less with more — to name a few.

And the numbers prove it. In the past year, 41.5 percent of show organizers have experienced layoffs and 35.0 percent have experienced a hiring freeze, according to the 2003 EXPO Salary Survey (see page 40 for complete results). But in the next year, 35.8 percent of show organizers are predicting show staffing increases. Not bad considering most economists are predicting only modest gains in unemployment for at least the next several months.

What are the other positive aspects for the future of expositions? According to the executives at the IAEM meeting, the demand for face-to-face contact isn’t going away. The increased efficiencies in this tough economy will pay off when the economy improves and we can reap the benefits of higher productivity. Emerging technologies and markets, such as bio-tech, healthcare, and security, will provide opportunities for new shows.

How do you weigh the negatives vs. the positives? How do you decide what direction to take your show or organization? Our feature, “What’s your risk tolerance?” (page 60), takes an in-depth look at three shows (consumer, association and for-profit) and their growth strategies. Then we asked three experts to weigh in. Take our tolerance test, and evaluate the strategies we provide for growing within your risk zone.

Most organizations have been conservative over the last couple of years, but there are a few taking bold steps. A number of those leading change come from outside the industry (see “The Innovators,” page 72). As one executive at the IAEM meeting said, “revolutionary ideas usually come from outside competitors, not traditional ones.”

What’s in store for 2004? Economists predict a more modest 4 percent rise in GDP for the next two quarters. At the same time, business spending is expected to continue to rise as corporate profits grow. It appears the recovery is coming. But don’t count on a return to business as usual.