Imagine for a moment that you produced a show and no one came. The thought produces cold chills. With any show, there's always the possibility that exhibit sales or attendance will be below expectations. But the risk is even greater with a new show. "It's tougher today than it was 10 years ago to get a new show off the ground," says Donald McClure, President of Southex Exhibitions in Don Mills, Ontario. "It takes more effort, and it's riskier."

However, you can minimize that risk and boost your new show's chances of success with a well-planned and carefully executed promotion campaign.

Promotion is a significant expense for any show, and you'll need at least a rough promotion budget before you can get started. But experienced show managers maintain that the numbers often change as you gather more accurate information and fine-tune your marketing plan.

When you're starting a show from scratch, and don't have last year's budget to use as a guide, look at the budget for a similar show produced by your company or association. Although the dollar figures may not be comparable, the individual line items probably will be. For example, you'll certainly have to budget for printing and mailing, but the amounts will depend on the quality of the printing you select, the weight and dimensions of each piece -- and thus the postage per piece and the number of mailings you'll do.

Think, too, about the type of show you're planning. A regional satellite show, for instance, will be promoted much differently than an international event.

There will be costs for developing and/or buying mailing lists, sales calls and telemarketing. Will your sales call be local or long-distance. Will you do print advertising? Radio? Cable or broadcast television? Will you create any special events to generate publicity? Order advertising specialty items? Budgets from another show can help up to a point, but the list must be customized to fit your marketing plan.

The only safe way to develop dollar amounts for each of these items is to ask. Simply marking up figures from another budget seldom produces accurate results. Get bids from printers. Find out what postage costs are. Ask newspapers and trade magazines what their ad rates are. Your colleagues can direct you to reliable suppliers and can give you ballpark figures or negotiation tips. For example, "If there are three radio stations to choose from, buy a maximum of two," suggests Dave Hutchison, President of Bay-Lakes Marketing in Luxemburg, WI. "Leaving one out makes their pencils sharper."

How much is enough?
At this point it's appropriate to consider an overall question: Should a new show be promoted more heavily than an established event?

The answer is a qualified "yes." You may very well need to spend more to create awareness and to build momentum. According to Jon Denman, President of Denex Group in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, "The advertising and promotion budget for a new show should be perhaps 20 percent larger -- whatever it takes."

The "yes" is qualified because many believe that cutting the promotion budget after the first year can hurt the show. "I don't believe that the budget diminishes if the show is successful enough to repeat," says Gregory Castello, Director of Operations for Credit Exchange Inc. in New York City. "Some people think they can diminish the budget on subsequent shows, but that's a big mistake."

David Larkin, Vice President of Corporate Development for The Larkin Group in New York City, is one who believes in sustaining the promotion effort. "We do as much as we can for every show," he explains. "Even for our established shows, we do about seven mailings for exhibitors, about four for buyers, plus ads and telemarketing. We take a macabre pride in the complaints we receive about the number of mailings and phone calls people get. We don't want anybody to say they didn't know about the show."

Selling booth space
A major risk when launching a show is assuming that everyone will be as excited by the idea as you are that you need only let people know about it, and they'll rush to sign up. In fact, you'll need to sell your idea persuasively and repeatedly. "You must demonstrate why people should feel compelled to participate, why they can't afford to miss it," says Gerald Lewis, Operating Officer of the Expositions and Conference Management Division at Production Group International in Arlington, VA.

If your company is already well-established, and only the show itself is unfamiliar to potential exhibitors, that's a good start. "You can point to previous new show successes you've been involved with," says Lewis. Such successes suggest that you probably know what you're doing this time, too.

But if you're a small or young company, or the show represents a major departure from what you've done in the past, your own reputation may not be enough. You may need an ally. This is the time to turn to the various sources whose input you sought during the initial research that led to your decision to launch the show. Those individuals and groups can figure prominently in your promotional strategy by providing ideas that will improve your chances of success -- adding to your credibility as you begin to sell booth space and perhaps even helping you to sell space. Line them up before you write your prospectus -- you'll want their names on it.

Forming alliances
Associations are logical allies, of course. Castello is working with the Consumer Credit Association in planning the Consumer Credit Showcase for New York City in November. "Their members are the vendors," Castello explains. "So we look first to them for support in selling booth space."

Many show managers stress the importance of getting major exhibitors on your team early in the game. "The first question prospective exhibitors ask is 'Who else is in the show?'" says Dennis Corcoran, President of D. Corcoran & Associates in Alexandria, VA. "So try to get a handful of exhibiting companies lined up before you send your prospectus."

Castello suggests one way to accomplish this. "To hook exhibitors, include their input on the program," he says. "Our seminar program consists of the leaders within the association -- the exhibitors who have come up with new technologies and new applications."

Even one exhibitor, carefully chosen, can be a major influence. That was the case for Hutchison when he started the All-Canada Show, now in its tenth year. "The main thing we did was to get to know a well-respected member of the trade we were going after. He endorsed the project, and that gave it credibility. We had only 29 exhibitors the first year, but we couldn't even have done that without the help of that one exhibitor."

The support of industry publications is also important -- whether financial, in terms of underwriting the event, or editorial, which adds to your visibility and credibility. Such support may not be difficult to get. "Trade publications make a good living from shows," says Larkin. "They're usually happy to support a new show unless they're co-sponsors of a competing event."

Lewis suggests combining the expertise of a number of individuals by forming two advisory councils. One council, he says, would include representatives of potential attendees -- prominent decision makers. "They could help to develop the educational portion of the event and ensure that the needs of the market and of the attendees are addressed." That advisory council might also include potential speakers, consultants and editors of industry publications. The second group would be made up of representatives of exhibiting companies, who could help in planning the exposition.

A persuasive prospectus
Once you've lined up your advisers and allies, you can begin to develop your prospectus -- which can be tricky. A prospectus for an established show usually trumpets the success of the previous one, stating the number of exhibitors and attendees, the major companies represented by both groups, what percentages of attendees were responsible for making or influencing purchasing decisions and perhaps quotes from satisfied exhibitors and attendees. A new show has none of that information. Yet there is much information that can be presented to persuade potential exhibitors to sign up.

First, of course, is the rationale for the show. What need are you serving? The prospectus for The Atlantic Wood Fabricators Exhibition, which Denex Group is launching in September, states, "Atlantic Canadian Millworkers and Cabinet Makers have long been without a specialized trade show to service their needs. The Atlantic Wood Fabricators Exhibition is the answer." REPLItech International, which Knowledge Industry Publications in White Plains, NY, launched last month, was described in its prospectus as being "designed to be the one industry event that focuses exclusively on the needs and interests of the duplicator and replicator."

The size of the market served by the show should also be stated in the prospectus. "Before deciding to launch a show," says Corcoran, whose home electronics show debuts in Orlando next March, "you identify a market, determine a need and research all the competitive events. The data you gathered on the size of the market, current sales and projections go into your prospectus."

An advantage for Sheila Alper, who is Vice President of Trade Shows for Knowledge Industry Publications, is that her shows coordinate with the magazines her company publishes. Thus, the prospectus for REPLItech International presented information from the company's Tape/Disc Business magazine on current and projected sales for the industry. But even show managers whose companies are not affiliated with publications can solicit such data and request permission to use it in a prospectus.

Make no promises
Your objectives for the show can be included in the prospectus, but many show managers are careful not to state them as promises. "I'm always annoyed when I see brochures for new events quoting numbers," says McClure. "You can have objectives -- you expect X-number of people -- but even that's a bit dangerous. It's better to talk about the content of the show and say, 'Here are the kinds of people we'd like to attract."'

Denman has a unique method for getting attendee specifics into his prospectus. "I talk to potential visitors and ask them what they're looking for at the show. Then I quote them, by name, in the prospectus."

One area in which show managers can -- and must -- be very specific is in describing the plan for attracting attendees. "Don't say you're going to do a multimedia campaign," says Denman. "Say that you're going to give X-number of passes to your exhibitors for distribution, and that you're taking l/4-page ads in these journals on these dates."

Alper, too, says she shares her marketing plan with exhibitors. The prospectus for REPLItech International states, "Targeted mailings will be sent worldwide to facility managers, operations managers, chief engineers and other professionals who manage the shipping, packaging and design functions. Both duplicating and replicating companies as well as organizations with in-house facilities will be invited to participate in the event." It's a clear statement of what kinds of buyers will be invited, but without any reckless promises to deliver those buyers.

If you've been fortunate enough to sign up some major exhibitors in advance, include their names on the prospectus. Also include the names of your allies -- the associations, publications and industry experts who are endorsing or supporting the show.

"If you don't have an exhibitor list, but feel good about the show, that's when your seminar program becomes very important," says Larkin. "You want to create an environment where people will have a fulfilling experience." In October his firm is producing the new Fashion Store Show, focusing on supplies, fixtures and services for the fashion industry. "We discovered a great need for seminars for that show," Larkin says. If your prospectus describes a seminar program that is likely to bring in the buyers, you improve your chances of attracting exhibitors.

As with any prospectus -- but especially one for a new event -- stress the benefits of participating in your show. For example, Castello says that there are existing shows in the area of credit and collections. "But the shows are usually held at expensive venues, in markets outside New York. The local people don't always get the opportunity to see the new technologies. Our prospectus will stress that this is a local event that's not expensive for the exhibitor. Another thing that will entice exhibitors is that they'll get a complete attendee list after the event."

The appearance of the prospectus is nearly as important as the content. "Don't take shortcuts with anything that affects your image," Lewis advises. "Be sure that all your materials look good and are professionally produced. The producer of a new show may think that people will have lower expectations and will be understanding. But people don't stop to think about that."

Building a prospect list
When putting together your list of prospective exhibitors, you are once again starting from scratch. There is no "last year's list" available for updating.

Most show managers agree that an exhibitor prospect list, unlike an attendee prospect list, must be homegrown. "We buy lists to promote attendance," says Alper, "but rarely for exhibitors. We put that list together very carefully ourselves. Our salespeople go through industry directories, newspapers and magazines -- ours and others -- looking at the ads and reading the articles."

An excellent source is directories from similar or competing shows, says Lewis. "If you're taking a niche from a larger show, go right to that list." Buyers' guides may not be quite as useful, he says: "People listed in buyers' guides may not have the resources to exhibit."

"Never underestimate the library as a major source," adds Castello. "A lot of things are a matter of public record." The Thomas Register and the Standard Directory of Advertisers (the advertising "Red Book") are two particularly useful publications available in business libraries.

Exhibitors and potential attendees can also provide names. "When you sell space, ask the exhibitor who else he'd like to see at the show," advises Denman. And certainly ask any potential attendees you talk with during your research phase which exhibiting companies they'd like to see.

The consensus is that booth sales for a new show should begin a full year in advance. Many established shows begin next year's sales at this year's event, and it's reasonable that a new show would require at least as much lead time. Corcoran, who was with the Consumer Electronics Show for 11 years, says, "My knowledge of the industry tells me that you should give people a year to budget, even though they probably won't decide until four to six months out. If I made a mistake, it was there," he says, referring to the fact that his show was originally scheduled for March of 1992 and was postponed by a year. "I gave people only five months, and in a recessionary period." In this economy, they simply couldn't move that fast.

Larkin believes that actual selling shouldn't begin more than a year in advance. Within that limit, he says, "Do it as soon as you can -- as soon as you have a floorplan. But you can have conversations with people even earlier than that -- as soon as you have identified prospects and understand the industry."

Can you actually begin selling too soon? In one sense, yes. "As long as you have a show staffed and are creating overhead, you're putting your expenses up," McClure explains. If you're sending brochures, or your salespeople are making calls -- well ahead of the time when potential exhibitors are likely to make the decision to exhibit -- you may be incurring unnecessary expenses. On the other hand, you may be increasing awareness. It's a judgment call and a budget call.

Telemarketing definitely plays a greater role in the promotion of a new show than an established show. "Nobody ever sends in an application form with a check without someone chasing him," says Denman. "Telemarketing is critical."

McClure, who finds telemarketing especially helpful as a follow-up to his mailings, says, "We do dedicated telemarketing -- we use staff people who are part of the show. And people compare notes on the reactions of prospective exhibitors. They look at the objections and the successes." If booth sales are started a full year in advance, McClure says, show management has time to be flexible, to skew the show in a different direction if necessary. The feedback from telemarketing can reveal if any such changes should be made.

Promoting attendance
With attendance promotion, just as with exhibit sales, show management must first develop a list of prospects and then persuade those prospects that this unknown event is not only worth their time, but is vital.

Associations can provide their membership lists and magazines their subscriber lists -- but be cautious. "Many lists are suspect," Lewis warns. "Groups may have lists that are not active. Be diligent -- ask about the process used to clean the list. Are the names real? Current? Are the addresses good? Try to find out how many of an association's members might actually attend an event. If the list comes from a publication, be very careful," he continues. "The list is probably two or three generations down on the 'live' scale. There could be a circulation of 40,000, but only 7,000 read it."

Denman is more blunt: "If you can buy a good list, that's great. But they vary -- they can have dead people on them." Denman gets live names by asking live people for them. "We ask exhibitors for the names of 10 people they'd give their eye teeth to see at the show." Merging and purging produces a master list of the most desirable attendees. "We write each of those people a personal letter saying that a number of visitors have specifically requested that they attend." Denman then bends over backward to get those key buyers to the show.

McClure finds it effective to write to the presidents of major companies, asking for the names of key people to pre-register for the show. He says that approach yields many names -- all of them live.

Although exhibit space sales begin about a year out, attendance promotion for a new show usually doesn't begin until three to six months out. Corcoran suggests sending a press release as much as a year in advance, to get associations talking about the event. He begins direct mail four months out and does four or five mailings.

Denman cuts it closer. For his trade shows -- his company also produces public shows -- trade ads and items in association newsletters are scheduled about three months before the show, and pre-registration begins two months out. "It's no different for a new or established show," he says, "but we step up the telemarketing for a new show. It's very impressive if a show manager or the management company president calls a buyer and says, 'We really need you here. What can we do for you? Can we make your hotel reservation?' In many cases, 100 buyers will make or break a show." And when you do lock up those key buyers, let your exhibitors know.

"An early announcement could be just a postcard to clean up your list," says Lewis. And he points to another advantage of such a mailing: "You can use it to get responses if you have rented a list that you can use only once. Those who respond are 'yours' forever."

Regardless of when you begin promoting the show, or how many mailings or ads you do, don't overlook the last-minute reminder. Alper recalls a start-up show her company produced a few years ago. "Because it was a new show, we started advertising and promoting six months out. We increased our ad budget and had good materials, and got fantastic advance registration. But people didn't show up." One problem might have been the three-day torrential rainstorm, but Alper doesn't try to claim that it was entirely an act of God. "It could have been three or four months from the time people registered until the event. For a new show, you have to build recognition and keep reminding people. The mailing we missed was the one we now send two weeks before the show -- and that has increased the attendance."

Ads build awareness
Trade ads are important for creating awareness among attendees. But such ads can be made to do double duty. "If you include a line telling prospective exhibitors how to get exhibit information, it's more effective than just advertising to attendees," says Lewis.

Building awareness for a consumer show can be even more difficult than for a trade show, says Denman: "It takes surely five years, and often 10, for a consumer show to become part of the calendar -- for people to expect it. In the early years it's terribly important to use the same jingles, the same typeface, the same style of ads -- so that people will recognize them and say, 'Oh, yes, I was there last year."'

And the timing of those ads is critical. "The media want you to advertise a public show one month out," Denman says. "But the average man on the street doesn't know what he's doing 10 days out. It's better to saturate the airwaves for a week than to fiddle around for three weeks."

It's important to establish a timetable for the entire promotion process, and have checkpoints at which you can determine whether or not you're on target. Which brings you full-circle to your promotion budget. What if you're not on target? Do you pour more money into promotion, or do you bail out?

"One thing you don't want is a bad first show," says Corcoran, "because you'll never have a second. If booth sales are lagging, do some quick telemarketing. Try to find out if exhibitors are waiting in the wings, or if the show is dead. Have things changed since you did your research? If attendee response is low, it's not as critical because they decide late. So you'd probably spend more on ads, direct mail and telemarketing to push them over the edge."

Similarly, Larkin says, "Toward the end, if we get nervous about attendance, we'll do some late ads and more telemarketing."

There's a clear preference for giving it all you've got, as long as the show is still viable -- and you still have money to spend. Or, as Larkin summarizes: "Be thorough in your research, and relentless in your marketing and promotion."